Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
